REASONS FOR THIS STUDY AND OBJECTIVES
This in-depth study examines recent commercial developments in immune disease treatments. The past decade has seen an explosion in knowledge concerning the immune system, and this is leading to a wealth of new drugs and procedures that selectively target the causes of immune diseases. As a result, we forecast that the worldwide market for drugs that treat immune disease will grow from an estimated $31.5 billion in 2002 to $47.1 billion by 2007. These diseases are one of the largest market opportunities for pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies since they are common, chronic and historic treatments have been largely ineffective.
The study examines the current market for the treatment of immune disease and then projects the effects of new technologies upon this market. It makes detailed, unbiased market forecasts for the period of 2002 to 2007 and profiles the major companies involved in treating immune disease.
AUDIENCE FOR THIS REPORT
This report offers a broad, yet detailed, overview of immune/autoimmune disease and the drugs that treat these diseases. Pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies working in the field will find the report useful in that it provides an unbiased assessment of the market potential of this field. In addition, the report provides an explanation of both the technology and the market effects of new technologies such as gene therapy, genomics, proteomics, high-throughput screening, and other technologies, upon immune disease.
Investors will find the report particularly interesting since it is rare to find a neutral appraisal of future prospects for the drug industry.
SCOPE AND CONTENT
This study surveys the market for small-molecule and biologic therapies for diseases caused by disorders of the immune system; therapies covered are either already used or will be used as medicine within the next 5 years (by the end of 2007). Promising drugs in the early stages of development are profiled, but the emphasis is strongly upon drugs that are either on the market, or will be on the market within the time frame of this study.
In addition to profiling drugs and explaining the mechanism by which these drugs achieve their efficacy, the report breaks out the major medical markets for immune disease.
This report does not cover drugs in pre-clinical testing. Due to governmental restrictions on drugs, these compounds will not be sold on the market for at least several years after 2007, if at all.
We do not cover medical devices (e.g., syringes for diabetics), or the direct costs of surgery to treat immune disease. We believe that the market dynamics of these products and services are dramatically different than the pharmaceutical market; customers interested in these markets would be better served by other BCC reports.
The report does not cover drugs that act to enhance the activity of the immune system against diseases such as cancer or opportunistic infections.
METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES
This report uses a combination of direct and indirect sources. Direct sources include interviews and conversations with scientists and analysts. Indirect sources include company news releases, governmental and non-governmental agencies, scientific journals and the popular press.
Sales were gathered from the most recently available data and represent worldwide sales of both branded and generic prescription drugs. In nearly all cases, this involved either first quarter sales figures or 2001 year-end reports. Sales for 2002 were based on year-to-date sales (generally through the second quarter) and estimates for the remaining two quarters of the year.
In some cases, (usually generic drugs), data was not available. Estimates were, therefore, made using patient populations, percentages treated with other drugs and average sales prices. In these cases it is clearly stated that these estimates are "rough".
Estimates of future worldwide growth depended primarily upon a baseline growth estimate of 8%. According to multiple estimates by research institutes, non-government and industry sources, overall pharmaceutical sales have grown at 8% over the past four decades. Sales in the U.S. have been growing much faster over the past few years, as evidenced by National Institute for Health Management's latest study, which estimated that U.S. prescription drug sales rose 17% last year. However, drug growth outside the U.S. has been much smaller. Furthermore, we predict that U.S. sales will revert to the mean on the back of numerous patent expirations.
Estimates for future sales growth within individual markets depended upon: patent expirations, percentage of the market penetrated, generic competition, competing drug classes, the introduction of new drugs, demographic growth and shifts, recent study results, and other variables. In each case where a forecast is made, the most important factors are listed. All figures for 2007 refer to the end of the year.
Sales are presented in millions of dollars, unless otherwise noted.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
Robert J. Cyran has a Master's degree in Economics from the University of Birmingham, UK. For the past several years he has worked as an editor and biotechnology correspondent for various publications, among them Forbes Magazine and Worldlyinvestor.com. He is also the author of C-202R New Developments in Therapeutic Enzyme Inhibitors and Blockers.
Report Code: BIO025C, Published: April 2003, Analyst: Robert Cyran
