INTRODUCTION
REASONS FOR THIS STUDY AND OBJECTIVES
This in-depth study analyzes commercial developments in small-molecule therapeutic enzyme inhibitors and receptor blockers. This $121 billion market is undergoing rapid change as new technologies such as genomics, proteomics, high-throughput screening, rational drug design, and combinatorial chemistry are being integrated into drug development and discovery. These technologies are expanding the number of drugs in clinical testing, as well as bringing completely new classes of drugs to market.
The study looks at these technologies and explains their effect upon the market for inhibitors and blockers. It then makes detailed and unbiased forecasts for the period 2000-2006 and profiles the major companies involved in blockers and inhibitors.
AUDIENCE FOR THIS REPORT
This report offers a broad, yet detailed overview of small-molecule inhibitors and blockers. Pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies working in the field will find the report useful in that it provides an unbiased assessment of the market potential of these compounds. In addition, the report provides an explanation of both the technology and the market effects of new technologies such as genomics, proteomics, high-throughput screening and bio-informatics upon the drug industry.
Investors will find the report particularly interesting, since it is rare to find a neutral appraisal of future prospects for the drug industry.
SCOPE AND CONTENT
This study surveys small-molecule enzyme inhibitors and receptor blockers which are either already used or will be used as medicine within the next 5 years (by the end of 2006). Promising inhibitors and blockers in the early stages of development are profiled, but the emphasis is strongly upon drugs that are either on the market, or will be on the market within the time frame of this study.
In addition to profiling drugs and explaining the mechanism by which these drugs achieve their efficacy, the report breaks out the major medical markets for receptors and blockers
This report does not cover inhibitors or blockers that are used for research purposes only. Due to governmental restrictions on drugs, these compounds will not be sold on the market for at least several years after 2006.
We do not cover antibiotics, biologics, agonists or antisense drugs. Although one could easily include these in a report on inhibitors and blockers, we feel that the market dynamics as well as mechanism of effect are sufficiently different so customers interested in these markets would be better served by other BCC reports.
Similarly, we do not include inhibitors or blockers used as pesticides (even though most pesticides are blockers) since agricultural markets have completely different market dynamics.
METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES
This report uses a combination of direct and indirect sources. Direct sources include interviews and conversations with scientists and analysts. Indirect sources include company news releases, governmental and nongovernmental agencies, scientific journals and the popular press.
Sales were gathered from the most recently available data and represent worldwide sales of both branded and generic prescription drugs. In nearly all cases, this involved recently announced 2001 year-end reports. In cases where the year-end reports weren't available and companies would not provide estimates for 2001 sales, the data was trended from the last available information whether it was third quarter or first half sales figures.
In some cases, data was not available. In these cases (usually generic drugs) estimates were made using patient populations, percentages treated with other drugs and average sales prices. In these cases it is clearly stated that these estimates are "rough."
Estimates of future worldwide growth depended primarily upon a baseline growth estimate of 8%. According to multiple estimates by research institutes, nongovernment and industry sources, overall worldwide pharmaceutical sales have grown at 8% over the past 4 decades. The growth rate has been higher over the past decade, but we estimate that it will revert to the mean on the back of numerous patent expirations.
Estimated for future sales growth within individual markets depended upon: patent expirations, percentage of the market penetrated, generic competition, competing drug classes, the introduction of new drugs, demographic growth and shifts, recent study results, and other variables. In each case where a forecast is made, the most important factors are listed. All figures for 2006 refer to the end of the year.
Sales are presented in millions of dollars, unless otherwise noted.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
Robert J. Cyran has a Master's degree in Economics from the University of Birmingham, UK. For the past several years he has worked as an editor and biotechnology correspondent for various publications, among them Forbes Magazine and Worldlyinvestor.com.
