Photovoltaics: Markets and Technologies

Report Highlights

• Total shipments of photovoltaic (PV) modules were estimated at 973.1 megawatts in 2004 and are expected to rise at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 23.8% to reach 2,783.1 megawatts by 2009.
• Silicon technology accounted for approximately 90% of the PV market in 2004 and will continue to dominate through the end of the forecast period. Multicrystalline silicon represents the highest volume.
• Recent improvements in their efficiency and the advent of flexible substrates, will provide thin film technology with continued growth.
• New technologies, such as dye-sensitized solar cells and modules made by nanotechnology processes, are projected to account for 19.7 megawatts by 2009.

INTRODUCTION

A photovoltaic essentially is a semiconductor that converts sunlight into electricity. PV-created direct current (DC) electricity that can be used as such, is converted to alternating current (AC) or stored for later use. This type of solar electricity is more expensive than that produced by traditional sources. But over the past two decades, the cost gap has been closing.

Photovoltaics go back to the 1950s with the advent of the space program, but the first concerted efforts to fully develop this technology for industry and consumer use began during the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The eventual stabilization of oil prices, however, had a dampening effect on investment and tax credits and government funding for R&D. Despite these changes, development of PV technology and materials continued, and in the 1990s, R&D funding, cost-shared programs and industry activity increased again. Now, with the increasing demand for energy and rising prices of fossil fuels, PV again offers assistance in meeting energy needs.

This BCC report is the latest update in an ongoing series examining the industry. This study of photovoltaic energy presents current and emerging technologies, details the industry structure (including the major players in emerging materials), analyzes the competitive environment, major applications, current and future markets and growth factors, and details shipments of cells and modules through 2009.

SCOPE OF STUDY

The report contains:

• Analysis of each of the following technologies while examining their current and potential efficiency
      - single-crystal silicon
      - multicrystalline silicon
      - thin films
      - compound semiconductor materials
      - dye-sensitized solar cells
      - organic solar materials
      - nanotechnologies
• Assessment of the current worldwide market status of each with shipments and values projected through 2009
• Examination of government funding and support, industry involvement, standards, and solar energy’s environmental impact
• Analysis of potential for applications, both grid connected and stand-alone.

METHODOLOGY

BCC presents an analysis for each PV technology of the number of modules, measured in megawatts, shipped in 2003. Our estimated values are what manufacturers have paid in undepreciated dollars. Then, based on our surveys, we analyze the potential market for each technology, and forecast shipments for 2004 and 2009. We also analyze the cost involved in manufacturing the modules and present an estimated value of shipments over the forecast period.

INFORMATION SOURCES

BCC surveyed approximately 125 companies to obtain data for this study. Included were manufacturers of PV cells and modules, arrays, and supporting equipment, as well as manufacturers of PV-related materials. We also spoke with companies developing solar cells based on thin films and materials made through the expanding field of nanotechnology. In addition, we compiled data from current financial and trade information, and government sources.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

After a successful career at IBM, Robert Moran has written extensively as a research analyst and editor at BCC. He edits Display Development News and is the author of numerous BCC market research documents. The topics of his reports range from various deposition technologies to electronic displays, electronic publishing, solar energy and fiber optics. Mr. Moran has been with BCC for over 25 years. B.S., Economics, University of Pennsylvania.