Photovoltaics: Global Markets and Technologies

Report Highlights

• The global market for photovoltaics (PV) will increase from $12.9 billion in 2007 to an estimated $16.1 billion by the end of 2008. It should reach nearly $32.3 billion by 2013 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9%.
• The rapid growth of PV will be driven by the global demand for energy of all kinds, the potential problems of climate change, the renewable features of solar energy and improvements in PV technology and materials.
• Silicon technology, which accounted for about 89% of the market in 2007, will continue to dominate through the end of our forecast period, but will represent only 79% of the market by 2013.

INTRODUCTION

PVs date back to the 1950s and the advent of the space program, but the initial concerted efforts to fully develop this technology for industry and consumer use began during the oil embargoes of the 1970s. The eventual stabilization of oil prices, however, had a dampening effect on investment, tax credits, and government funding for research and development (R&D).

Despite these changes, the development of PV technology and materials continued, and in the late 1990s, R&D funding, cist-shared programs, and industry activity once again increased. Now, with the increasing demand for energy and the rising prices of fossil fuels, PV again offers assistance in meeting energy demands.

BCC Research examined this industry in a 2005 report, EGY014E-Photovoltaics: Markets and Technologies. Since the demand for energy is growing at unprecedented levels, and global climate change is demanding the development of alternatives to fossil fuels, we were interested in revisiting the state of PV technology, analyzing the major growth factors, and projecting the PV industry's growth potential.

SCOPE OF STUDY

This report contains:

• Descriptions of various types of photovoltaics (PV) technologies including monocrystalline silicon, multicrystalline silicon, thin films (e.g. amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium diselenide) and compound semiconductor materials (e.g. gallium arsenide)
• Discussion of emerging approaches such as nanostructured films, dye-sensitized solar cells, and organic technologies
• The current market status for PV, trends and forecasts for growth over the next 6 years
• Technological issues including the latest trends and a thorough patent analysis
• Analysis of the industry's manufacturing capacity and consumption by various regional markets.

METHODOLOGY

BCC Research presents an analysis for each PV technology of the number of cells as measured in megawatts shipped in 2007. Our estimated values are what manufacturers have paid in undepreciated dollars. Then, based on our surveys, we analyze the potential market for each technology, and forecast shipments for 2008 and 2013. We also analyze the cost involved in manufacturing the cells and modules, and then present an estimated value of shipments over the forecast period.

INFORMATION SOURCES

BCC Research presents an analysis for each PV technology of the number of cells as measured in megawatts shipped in 2007. Our estimated values are what manufacturers have paid in undepreciated dollars. Then, based on our surveys, we analyze the potential market for each technology, and forecast shipments for 2008 and 2013. We also analyze the cost involved in manufacturing the cells and modules, and then present an estimated value of shipments over the forecast period.

ANALYST CREDENTIALS

After a successful career at IBM, Robert H. Moran has written extensively as a research analyst and editor at BCC Research. The topics of his reports range from various deposition technologies to electronic displays, solar energy, and solid state lighting. Mr. Moran has been writing for BCC Research for more than 20 years. He earned a B.S. degree in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania.