World Markets for Bulk Photovoltaic Installation

Report Highlights

• Total worldwide revenue from bulk PV installations reached $212 million in 2003 and is expected to rise at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 21.3% to $556 million in 2008.
• Bulk PV generating capacity will rise at a slightly higher rate to 272 MW in 2008.
• Currently costs are high, but many governments have recognized the importance of PVs and have established funds that underwrite project expenses to bring them to a point where the economics work..
• The rate at which the costs of PV power are falling will bring PV capacity to parity with conventional power plants within a decade.

INTRODUCTION

The renewable energy technologies industry has entered the realm of big . Large wind turbines joined small hydro and biomass in sharing billion-dollar annual revenues in the late 1990s. Photovoltaics (PV) reached that level in 2000 and now megawatt-scale projects occur regularly. Geothermal power plants have become a short-listed option wherever a sufficient resource is present. A host of new ocean energy conversion technologies have been developed, and demonstration projects are being deployed in the waters off four continents.

Photovoltaic manufacturing capacity has become large enough that a big order, sometimes surpassing a megawatt of capacity, no longer represents the annual production of an entire factory. The number of applications that demand such high concentrations of PV modules is expanding. Bulk arrays now are found on rooftops as tiles, shingles and modules, as weather skins on commercial and institutional buildings, as parking lot shading, as stand-alone power plants, distributed over the rooftops of housing projects, and providing power in a distributed fashion to remote villages and homes.

This BCC report pinpoints growth opportunities for large-scale PV projects. The goal is to quantify their current and future installed capacity, to place a dollar value on those shipments, and to pinpoint their locations where possible. The study assesses the technical status and identifies and quantifies market opportunities for bulk power (>100 kW) photovoltaic installations.

SCOPE OF STUDY

The report contains:

• Assessments for established and emerging markets for bulk power PV technologies, including various Si, CIS, CdTe and organic dye-stabilized TiO cells.
• Forecasts of market evolution through 2008 in terms of installed and future installed capacities and annual project revenues
• Perspectives on government incentive programs, mandatory green energy purchases, and legislative and regulatory support on national, provincial and state levels
• Identifies specific regional markets for PV merchant power plants, BIPV, green buildings, carports, RPS mandated PV and others.

METHODOLOGY

BCC analyzed bulk PV capacity shipped through 2003 and what is expected to be shipped by the end of 2008. Estimated value is project revenue in 2003 dollars and, where appropriate, in terms of annual new projects, annual new capacity, and cumulative capacity (megawatts).

Various assumptions were made for unit capacity. The underlying rationale for the assumptions is provided with relevant market forecasts. These were generated to cover world, regional, national and, where appropriate, provincial and state markets.

Forecasts were created on the basis of unit counts by various international and national government agencies, market sector associations, and manufacturers' financial reports and press releases. Consideration also was given to fundingprograms underwritten by international and national agencies, the presence or absence of feed-in tariffs, and government policies aimed at the development of national, provincial and state photovoltaic capacity.

Care was taken to understand the impacts of subsidies, grants and mandates that support deployment and growth in the markets for bulk photovoltaic shipments.

INFORMATION SOURCES

BCC surveyed numerous companies, consultants and government agencies to obtain data and background information for this study. Included were manufacturers of photovoltaic panels and production equipment, federal, state and local government officials, legislators, entrepreneurs, micropower` companies and distributed-generation project development companies.

Discussions also were held with green power marketers, permitting specialists, project developers, project engineering firms, government regulators and researchers, bankers and venture capitalists and utility representatives.

In addition, data was compiled from financial and trade information, government sources and technical societies. Extensive use was made of World Wide Web sources to develop a comprehensive, quantitative view of world markets in as efficient a manner as possible.

ANALYST'S CREDENTIALS

Michael Kujawa is a market research analyst and renewable energy consultant. He has authored reports on markets for large wind turbines, geothermal power plants, biogas-fueled generation capacity, U.S. power markets during deregulation, cogeneration equipment, fuel cells, small hydro, ocean energy conversion equipment and photovoltaics. He has a background in renewable energy project development, aerospace technologies and marine operations simulation research. Mr. Kujawa recently acted as a development executive for a startup company engaged in the distributed generation in the U.S., the Caribbean and South America.