New Components for Next Generation Vehicles

Report Highlights

• The overall U.S. market for next generation vehicle components is estimated at $35 million in 2004 and is expected to rise at an AAGR (average annualgrowth rate) of 42.8% to $208 million in 2009.
• Rising at an AAGR of 55.2%, fuel cell modules will represent 43% of the total in 2009, up from 28.6% in 2004 due to more rapidly falling pricesof other components.
• The need for a fuel cell vehicle to have horsepower and performance more comparable to a traditional vehicle will become more obviouswithin the next five years.
• The advanced battery market for fuel cell transportation will see growth in nickel-metal hydride batteries, large format lithium-ion/polymer batteries and ultracapacitors alone, or in combination with batteries. Thissector will show an AAGR of 36.8% over the five-year period.

INTRODUCTION

In the U.S., comparatively traditional automotive technologies and methodologies in both manufacturing and engineering development still are the norm, albeit modernized considerably in the last 20 years. The forces impacting the retention of traditional technology and the development of newer technology essentially remain the same as they have for 50 years. A good deal of shaking down in the industry is foreseen as management and technology sectors are realigned. Many factors are involved that will influence how all this plays out.

This timely BCC report analyzes the technology advances that offer the promise of performance equal to traditional power sources for transportation. There are growing needs for efficient and affordable zero emission, noncrude oil dependent vehicles, the most serious and pressing of which clearly emerged in mid-2004 as oil prices soared beyond $40 a barrel and U.S. gas prices skyrocketed. These factors will be addressed in the report. Environmental considerations also are driving the development of fuel cell vehicles.

The study focuses on four major components for fuel cell vehicles. They include the fuel cell module as the vehicle engine, hydrogen storage, batteries or ultracapacitors as energy storage to assist the fuel cell, and the electric motor and drive. The report looks at the structure of the automotive industry, the companies involved with these advanced components, initiatives for the automotive industry and its suppliers, and the value of the projected markets for these components for next-generation vehicles.

SCOPE OF STUDY

The report contains:

• Overview of the changing U.S. auto industry and automotive technology

• Examination of the four major components of nex gen vehicles: fuel cell modules, hydrogen storage, batteries and ultracapacitors, and the electric motor and drive

• Analysis of the projected markets for these components with forecasts through 2009
• Identification of the companies competing for their share of this technological advance
• Analysis of the primary factors shaping the marketplace: government, the automotive industry itself and the consumer.

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

Research for this report began with an in-depth analysis of technical, patent, and literature. Interviews with industry experts, company representatives, federal government researchers, and university scientists provide the basis for an assessment of the position for fuel cell vehicles, both as hybrids and as the sole power source. Other information comes from BCC, Inc.'s monthly newsletters Fuel Cell Technology News, Battery and EV Technology News, and Membrane & Separation Technology News.

The report makes projections for each market in terms of constant dollars. Historical values are presented for the given year. The focus is on the U.S. Overseas activity is mentioned, putting the U.S. market into global context. Values that are given for components are based on the best estimates by individuals involved in the sale or commercialization of the technology and do not represent engineering or integration value in a vehicle.

ANALYSTS CREDENTIALS

Anna Welch Crull, a chemist and longtime private consultant, is experienced in fuel cell technologies, membrane materials, and advanced separations. Ms. Crull has worked with BCC for 30 years and authored 83 technical/marketing reports, helped establish 10 technical newsletters, and assisted in numerous special consulting studies for more than 30 corporations and U.S. and foreign governments. Her specialty is market evaluations and commercialization of new technology.

Colonel Dick Hooker (USA, Ret.) trained as a journalist prior to entering the army as an infantry officer. Col. Hooker spent half of his military career abroad, with European service, three tours in Vietnam, where he commanded an infantry battalion, and then as an intelligence officer and foreign area specialist with U.S. Embassies and Military Missions in Asia and the Middle East. He has co-authored global studies on water and wastewater global markets, advanced military battery technology, and fuel cell markets in stationary and transportation applications. A private consultant, he has worked with BCC for 5 years, specializing in military applications for advanced technologies.