Pandemic Control: Resistant Organisms and Emerging Threats

Report Highlights

• The market for "new antibiotics" and HIV/AIDS treatments was $6.2 billion in 2003 and is rising at an AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 9.1%. It is expected to reach $10.1 billion in 2008.
• New antibiotics (products introduced in 2000 or later) will move from a market share of just under 4% in 2003 to a projected market share of more than 20% in 2008, rising at an AAGR of nearly 34%.
• Drugs to treat HIV/AIDS will not see as dramatic an annual growth rate, but will continue to expand at a healthy pace as a result of recently introduced products.
• In this category, combination products are taking market share away from single-chemical agents, and this trend will continue throughout the forecast period.

INTRODUCTION

The continuing emergence of drug resistance threatens to reverse progress made during the latter half of the 20th century to effectively treat bacterial and other infectious diseases. In 2004, the problem of antimicrobial resistance poses a global threat to the effective treatment of many bacterial diseases.

Furthermore, HIV shares with drug-resistant bacteria the capacity for considerable evolutionary potential. These two organisms not only have jolted the healthcare community out of its relative complacency about the threat of infectious diseases, but have done more to enhance widespread understanding of the importance of population and evolutionary biology to human health and medicine than any other example in the past century.

This BCC report provides an explanation of the process of resistance and the technologies involved in approaching this challenging and ominous threat. The study focuses on recently introduced and in-development antibiotics that specifically address the problem of resistance, and HIV/AIDS products, some of which also are targeted at overcoming resistance. The mechanisms by which these drugs function to outwit resistant microbes are described as well, as the likelihood that resistance will develop and within what timeframe. Drugs that show promise of long-term activity (i.e., low likelihood of resistance) and their effect on the market are assessed. Forecasts are provided for the antibiotics and HIV/AIDS drug markets.

SCOPE OF STUDY

The report provides:

• A focuses on products in development to treat bacterial diseases, especially those caused by drug-resistant organisms, and HIV/AIDS
• Clarification of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and ongoing efforts to control it
• Discussion of emerging threats, such as multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, West Nile virus and other serious viral diseases
• Sales for 2003 of new antibiotics and HIV/AIDS drugs, with forecasts through 2008
• Trends based on projected sales through 2008 for new products, including supporting analyses for projections.

METHODOLOGY

Information to prepare this study was derived from information supplied by product managers, marketing strategists, research executives and others at leading companies involved in the development of new antibiotic and HIV/AIDS products. Data was accessed from government agencies (in particular the World Health Organization, United Nations and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) and regulatory bodies that monitor and/or regulate pharmaceutical products. Searches of secondary material such as company annual reports and 10Ks, journal articles, prospectus assessments and data from healthcare institutions were also conducted.

INFORMATION SOURCES

Information to prepare this report was obtained from companies, organizations and institutions involved in the development of antibiotic and HIV/AIDS products and vaccines; industry analysts; healthcare personnel; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other government agencies; literature searches; annual reports; 10Ks; and product literature.

ANALYSTS CREDENTIALS

Lynn Gray has been a research analyst in biotechnology and life sciences since 1989 and with BCC since 1996. During that time, she has authored numerous reports in the biomedical field, 20 for BCC alone. BA, University of California, Riverside, 1973.