The World Natural Gas Business
Through 2008, global natural gas use will increase at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 2.4%, up from an AAGR of 2.0% from 2000 to 2003.
During the period, natural gas use will increase to 116.91 TCF per year.
Environmental concerns are expected to substantially increase future demand for natural gas.
The unconventional natural gas category (coalbed methane, gas shales, tight sands and landfill) will rise at an AAGR of 10.7% to 12.8 TCF.
Technical advances have lowered the cost of liquefication, and thus
Natural gas has played a major role in meeting energy demands in North America, Western and Eastern European countries, and industrialized Asia due to its availability and environmental acceptance.
The natural gas model has been drastically altered in the last decade. With deregulation and restructuring of the natural gas industry in the 1990s, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Order 500 and Order 636 fundamentally altered the natural gas in the U.S. and many countries worldwide resulting in the development of new markets. These have dramatically change how the industry operates using the U.S. models.
Also, over the past three years (2000-2003), new environmental legislation has come on-stream. These factors have affected the demand pattern. New technology for power generation in fuel cells and gas conversion in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis also are creating possibilities for monetizing remote gas and gas produced in marginal fields. Renewed interest in these processes has created huge investments in the worldwide natural gas industry.
This updated BCC report assesses the role of natural gas as a primary energy source and a major feedstock for the production of high-quality clean power and chemicals, respectively. It quantifies the global demand for natural gas by product type, application and technology, and the relationships between major consumers and producers. The international natural gas trade also is evaluated and quantified by distribution type.
SCOPE OF STUDY
The report contains:
- An overview of the natural gas industry in relation to the global economy
- A discussion of the environmental/energy regulation scene, regulation changes and the agencies involved
- Analysis of the industry’s structure and competitive aspects
- Quantification by region of reserve endowment and depletion rates
- Evaluation of natural gas markets by product type and application with global and regional forecasts to 2008
- Technology and R&D assessments, international aspects and company profiles.
In this report both historic and current data have been used in the natural gas demand analysis. The results of the calculations presented here are therefore based on three components: a historic analysis of the global natural gas demand/utilization in the period 2000 to 2003 estimates for 2003 and forecasted demand for the 2003 to 2008 time frame. The report also gives estimates of losses in natural gas as a result of transportation and distribution and explains how such losses are being minimized.
Information sources include trade data (national and international), company publicity literature, conference reports, world trade technical journals and interviews with company representatives.
Dr. Edward Gobina is a Research Professor in Chemical and Processing Engineering and has over 15 years research and teaching experience in petrochemical reaction engineering, catalysis and membrane technology. He has been published extensively, with over 100 relevant publications in international scientific journals. He is the author of four major patents on membrane-related technologies and nine previous reports relating to the chemical energy, and oil and gas industries. He is currently the principal investigator of three externally funded research projects involving postdoctoral researchers designing new compact reactor systems for enhancing fluid processing in offshore/deepwater platforms. Dr. Gobina is a member of the European Membrane Society (EMS), the North American Membrane Society (NAMS) and the New York Academy of Sciences (NYAS). He is currently the director at the Centre for Process Integration and Membrane Technology (CPIMT) within the school of engineering at the Robert Gordon University in the UK.
Through 2005, global natural gas demand by utilization will reach 104 trillion cubic feet (TCF)/year, increasing at an annual average growth rate (AAGR) of 3.0% during the forecast period.
Global consumption will increase from 85 TCF/year in 2000 to 94 TCF/year in 2005, corresponding to an AAGR of 2.0%, up from the 0.6% witnessed between 1997-2000.
Demand by transportation will spearhead growth in natural gas utilization, increasing at an AAGR of 7.3% through 2005.
Primary energy utilization represents the largest demand base and will show an increase in demand at an AAGR of 2.6% over the period.
Regionally, areas outside of North America and Europe will witness a natural gas consumption increase corresponding to an AAGR of nearly 5.0%.