2012 Power Sources and Advanced Vehicle Progress Review
- In the U.S. there are now more than 1,700 fuel cell powered forklifts in use or on order. The last couple of years have seen more than 25 fuel cell buses placed or planned for transit service. Fuel cell stationary power installed or purchased is approaching 100 MW.
- More than 21 billion primary batteries, mostly alkaline and zinc carbon, worth more than $15 billion, were used in portable battery-powered products in 2011. The high-value portable product battery market for rechargeable lithium batteries currently stands at 1 billion units per year.
- Battery chargers allow the easy commercialization of secondary battery-powered products and remain a significant market. In 2010, 1.7 billion internal and external battery chargers worth an estimated $31 billion were used with portable battery-powered products.
This Review provides a comprehensive summary of news and events that affected the market for power sources and advanced vehicles in 2012, as reported in the BCC Research newsletter, “Power Sources and Advanced Vehicle Progress.”
A popular theme over the year 2012 has been the push for the “all electric” vehicle. Even those vehicles such as the Volt that claimed, at first, to be all electric, still had a battery system General Motors tried to avoid the use of the term “hybrid” and finally ended up conceding to the reality of the Volt having a gasoline powered internal combustion engine (ICE) and settled on the term “extended range electric vehicle.” Paving the road to an all electric fleet has not been as smooth as expected. The plug-in electric vehicle such as Nissan’s Leaf was set up to be the Holy Grail for energy advocates looking for a change in the U.S. transportation sector. This led to news on scaling up the lithium ion battery. This led to concerns and safety issues regarding the lithium ion battery in a large format. Other chemistries are being investigated. The nickel metal hydride battery in a true hybrid configuration seems to be holding its own.
One of the more significant barriers to large scale integration and use of plug-in electric vehicles are the charging infrastructure and the potential cost of installing charging stations. Plugging in a vehicle to a wall socket does not make the energy consumption free. Electron flowing from the wall socket cost the provider of the energy. Various business ventures and mergers and different solutions proposed for these issues are news items in “Power Sources and Advanced Vehicle Progress.” The newsletter provides insights into how power source problems, needs and improvements are being made and how to be informed on any change in the value chain or to solve problems that are evolving. These advanced vehicles are being challenged by gas-saving and improved ICEs.
Fuel cells have yet to make a big dent in the transportation market with the exception of fork lifts and some buses or trucks on a fixed route. Zero emissions in an enclosed space such as a warehouse makes a lot of sense for a fork lift. Returning to base on a fixed route makes a fuel cell powered bus a viable means of supply and quiet operation. Fuel cells do offer a unique combination of benefits that make them a vital technology suited for a number of applications. The use of solid oxide fuel cells or molten carbonate fuel cells in stationary applications seems to be the leading application at this time. Fuel cells in this case must be looked on as complementary and not competitors to all the other electricity generation technologies and fuels.
GLOBAL MARKET FOR PORTABLE BATTERY-POWERED PRODUCTS, THROUGH 2016
|Toys and novelties||25,075||28,290||28,870||31,949||2.0|
Source: BCC Research
In the U.S. there are now more than 1,700 fuel cell powered forklifts in use or on order. The last couple of years have seen more than 25 fuel cell buses placed or planned for transit service. Fuel cell stationary power installed or purchased is approaching 100 MW and world wide that number is increasing. The U.S. holds the most patents for fuel cells in components, storage or generation of hydrogen and in device designs. The Department of Defense (DoD) is still the leader in awards and grants for fuel cell development and research but the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and others are making R&D awards for fuel cells as are some state agencies.
The BCC Research market research report on portable battery powered products in global markets (FCB023E) by Donald Saxman is a valuable adjunct to this 2012 newsletter review.
The key technology that enables these portable products is the $40 billion worth of batteries used worldwide to provide power. Although advanced, high-energy battery systems such as lithium-ion, lithium-ion polymer), and nickel-metal-hydride have gained the most attention, primary alkaline batteries are still widely and routinely used. More than 21 billion primary batteries, mostly alkaline and zinc carbon, worth more than $15 billion will be used in portable battery-powered products in 2011. The high-value portable product battery market for rechargeable lithium batteries currently stands at 1 billion units per year. Summary information from that report is shown below. For the complete report, contact BCC Research directly.
Battery chargers allow the easy commercialization of secondary battery-powered products and remain a significant market. In 2010, 1.7 billion internal and external battery chargers worth an estimated $31 billion were used with portable battery-powered products.
Market Research Analyst
- Statistics may vary by different sources but cars produced worldwide in 2010 (latest data available) number about 51 million. To this add the millions of vehicles already on the roads. Back in 2007, the SUV lead with 43% of a three segment market. Hybrids have remained more or less constant since 2008 with 24 to 29% of the market. According to HighBeam Research, through 2011 the EV had 61% of its market sector.
- Despite relatively modest sales projections for EVs for the next 15 years, automotive executives believe that some 83% of automakers will increase investment in electric motor production. Over 81% of the automakers believe investment in battery technology will rise. Approximately 65% of the automakers predict increased investment in fuel cell technology for automobiles.
- Hybrid car statistics show that over 200,000 hybrid cars have been sold in the U.S in 2010. Nearly every production hybrid on the road today uses a power train combination that consists of a gasoline engine (ICE) and an electric motor, which is connected to a nickel-metal hydride battery. This may make all hybrids seem similar, but each of them takes a different approach with their hybrid technology.
The global electric vehicle market in 2009 was worth more than $26 billion, including more than $4.6 billion worth of associated power sources. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% between 2010 and 2015 under a consensus scenario. This will result in a $78 billion global market in 2015, along with a $7.6 billion power source market.
The hybrid electric vehicles market is worth an estimated $19.3 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $46.2 billion in 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% under a consensus scenario.
The HEV and PHEV battery market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over the next 5 years, from $1.3 billion in 2009 to reach more than $2.6 billion in 2014.
- Provides a comprehensive review of all major news and other events that affect the global market for products, systems and services used in the global market for hybrid and electric vehicles in 2009
- Covers technological advances in hybrid and electric vehicles and battery technology
- Highlights business developments such as significant contracts, mergers, acquisitions, alliances, joint ventures and partnerships
- Looks at efforts by federal, state, and local governments to promote use of hybrid and electric vehicles
- Investigates and reviews major research and development efforts
- Reviews current and pending legislation that may affect industry growth.
- The global market for large and advanced batteries increased from $8.4 billion in 2006 to $8.9 billion in 2007. It should reach $11.4 billion by 2012, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1%.
- The global market for new components used in hybrid electric vehicles was worth $1.6 billion in 2005 and is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 24% through 2010.
- Hybrid car owners are the most loyal buyers, with 47% purchasing another vehicle of the same make. The average consumer loyalty for all vehicle classes is 35%.
The 2007 Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Progress Review provides a comprehensive summary of all major news and other events that affect the global market for electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles in 2007. Included is coverage of:
- Technology advances
- Business developments such as mergers, acquisitions, alliances, joint ventures, and partnerships
- Major initiatives by automakers to promote use of alternative vehicles
- Efforts by federal, state, and local governments to promote use of alternative vehicles
- Research and development
- New alternative vehicles designs
- Battery developments
- Current and pending legislation that may affect industry growth
- Key industry events.
We hope you will find this Review valuable, and we look forward to another year of serving our customers' technology market research needs.
Kevin R. Fitzgerald