Advanced Battery Technology & Markets
- The global market for large and advanced batteries increased from $8.4 billion in 2006 to $8.9 billion in 2007. It should reach $11.4 billion by 2012, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1%.
- Much of the market value and growth will be due to electric vehicle (hybrid and plug-in) and portable computer sales and development.
- The current battery technology dominating this market is nickel metal hydride. It is expected to play a dominant role through 2012 but lithium-ion technologies will become increasingly important, provided costs can be reduced and safety concerns addressed.
Until about 20 years ago, the U.S. battery market was considered mature, with demand closely related to sales of either automobiles or various consumer products. Since then, advanced batteries have helped spark a dramatic change in this relationship.
"Large and advanced battery" is an arbitrary designation developed by BCC Research to describe a market-driven battery classification. As defined in this report, large and advanced batteries must have three attributes-they must be secondary (rechargeable) electrochemical energy storage devices (batteries), "large" in terms of size and energy capacity, and technologically advanced.
This definition excludes all primary (nonrechargeable) batteries and all lead-acid automotive batteries, as well as all A, C, and D cylindrical batteries and button cells. Nonautomotive lead-acid batteries are included. Many portable product batteries, including computer power, portable tools, and battery-powered lawn care products are included.
Several entirely new classes of advanced batteries have been commercialized during the last 20 years, including nickel-metal hydride, secondary lithium, and zinc-air designs. Meanwhile, improved microelectronic battery charger controller technology is allowing the commercialization of entire new classes of batteries (notably rechargeable alkaline and lithium-ion) often at the expense of previously important battery systems (notably nickel-cadmium and portable product lead-acid). This, in turn, has allowed the commercialization of portable products that would have been impossible without improved battery chargers, including portable computers and portable cordless hand tools.
As this synergy continues to develop, there are areas where the advanced battery industry could experience the explosive growth usually associated with emerging industries. Battery designers (mainly electrochemists) and battery charger designers (mainly electrical and electronics specialists) will continue to operate together, with new batteries and new battery chargers evolving together to produce even higher performance products.
SCOPE OF STUDY
This report contains:
- Descriptions of various types of large and advanced batteries including those for traction, marine and aviation applications, computers, handtools, lawncare products, military/aerospace applications, uninterruptible power supplies, emergency lighting, remote power, alternative energy storage and alternative vehicles
- The current global market status of the large and advanced battery industry, with trends and forecasts for growth over the next 5 years
- Discussion of advanced battery research and development worldwide, especially in the Far East, the United States, Europe (especially France), and Canada
- Technological issues including the latest trends and a thorough patent analysis
- Company profiles.
This report is based on interviews with commercial and government sources, literature reviews, and patent examinations. Throughout the report, past market data is expressed in current dollars, and estimates and projections are in constant 2007 dollars. Historic markets and the projected market for 2012 are provided. Most market summaries are based on a consensus scenario that assumes no unanticipated technical advances and no unexpected legislation. Pessimistic, consensus, and optimistic market scenarios characterize several developmental markets. Totals are rounded to the nearest million dollars. When appropriate, information from previously published sources is identified to allow a more detailed examination by clients.
Market assumptions used in this report include those based on updates of material from an earlier version of this analysis, as well as from BCC Research studies Portable Battery Powered Products and Lithium Batteries: Markets and Materials. This report's author prepared these studies as well. Although many segments of the industry are well documented, much of this information is based on estimates, not hard facts. The distinction between these estimates and hard facts can be vital, and wherever possible, sources are identified.
This report's project analyst, Donald Saxman, is the editor of BCC Research's Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Progress and Fuel Cell Industry Report newsletters, and has founded several other BCC newsletters. Saxman has over 25 years experience in market analysis, technical writing, and newsletter editing. Since 1983, he has operated as a technical market consultant and subcontractor to BCC Research, and in this capacity, he has prepared over 75 Technology Market Research Reports, including many that covered battery technology and battery markets. His previous experience includes supervision of a quality-control laboratory at a major secondary lead refinery, experience as an analytical chemist at a hazardous waste testing service, product assurance manager for a space station life support system project, and an information technology business analyst and project manager.
The U.S. market for large-and-advanced batteries was valued at $3.0 billion in 2003 and is growing at an average annual rate (AAGR) of 8.8%.
The market is expected to reach $4.5 billion in 2008.
The HEV/EV battery market is expected to grow at an AAGR of more than 50% to nearly $250 million in 2008. Nickel-metal hydride technologies dominate this market.
The $1,195 million 2003 portable computer battery market is expected to rise at an AAGR of 4.5% to reach $1.5 billion by 2008. Nickel-metal hydride battery sales will drop with lithium technologies rising.
The highest value large-and-advanced battery type is nonautomotive lead-acid. As defined, they represent an $881 million U.S. market, withboth traction and stationary applications being the largest sectors.
Large-and-advanced batteries represent a $2.2 billion market growing at an average annual rate of over 7%. Thereafter, as new applications develop, growth should accelerate, growing at an average annual rate of nearly 17% through 2010 to a total of $7.3 billion.
Utility load leveling batteries could grow to an annual $15 million market by 2010.
The U.S. uninterruptible power supply battery market is currently worth $400 million and is expected to grow to $540 million by 2005, and to $655 million by 2010.
Average annual large-and-advanced U.S. lithium-ion battery sales are currently $350 million and will balloon to over $835 million in 2005.