INTRODUCTION
STUDY BACKGROUND
Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are one of the fastest growing technology areas, with sales approaching $7.2 billion in 2008 and expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 12% from 2009 through 2014.
MEMS have proven to be a key enabling technology of developments in sectors such as transportation, telecommunications, and healthcare, but the range of MEMS applications covers nearly every sector. The most significant advantage of MEMS is their ability to communicate easily with semiconductor chips. Other advantages include MEMS’ compact size, reduced power consumption, lower cost, and increased reliability.
The growth in the use of MEMS has also led to the creation of supporting industries in areas such as MEMS design software, design services, specialty fabrication equipment, and fabrication facilities.
BCC last surveyed the MEMS industry in 2006. Since then, the range of MEMS products and applications has grown rapidly. Although some types of MEMS (e.g., airbag accelerometers) have had great commercial success, other types (such as fiber-optic MEMS) have at least so far failed to live up to their proponents’ expectations.
Although MEMS are an established industry, it is important to avoid “hyping” its prospects, especially the hype that can divert investment from MEMS with real commercial potential. To the extent that hype results in exaggerated investor expectations that are subsequently disappointed, it can lead to a drying-up of investment funds, such as happened in the dot.com sector after 2000.
This report takes a hard look at the MEMS market and tries to provide a road map to the technologies and applications that are most likely to be successfully commercialized in the next 5 years.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
The goal of this report is to provide investors and others with information on the commercial potential of various MEMS technologies and applications, to complement the growing body of technical information. Specific objectives include identifying segments of the MEMS market with the greatest commercial potential in the near to mid-term (2008–2014), projecting future demand in these segments, and evaluating the challenges that must be overcome for each segment to realize its potential in order to estimate the probability of successful commercialization.
INTENDED AUDIENCE
The report is intended especially for entrepreneurs, investors, venture capitalists, and other readers with a need to know where the MEMS market is headed in the next 5 years. Other readers who should find the report particularly valuable include MEMS marketing executives and government officials associated with the National Nanotechnology Initiative and other state-level programs to promote the development of the nanotechnology industry. The report’s findings and conclusions should also be of interest to the broader nanotechnology community.
SCOPE AND FORMAT
The report addresses the global market for MEMS applications. MEMS are devices that integrate mechanical elements, sensors, actuators, and electronics on a common silicon substrate, and typically have dimensions in the 1-micron to 100-micron range. (1 micron = 1 millionth of a meter). These devices are sometimes also referred to as microsystems, especially in Europe.
Sometimes the term MEMS is also used interchangeably with terms such as nanotools and nanodevices, but the scope of this report does not include either nanotools or nanodevices. The key distinction is one of scale: MEMS are measured in millimeters (1 thousandth of a meter) or microns (1 millionth of a meter), while nanotools and nanodevices have dimensions or perform tasks on a nanoscale (i.e., less than 100 nm or one 10 millionth of a meter). Nanotechnology is only addressed in this report to the extent that it is a key enabling technology for some types of MEMS.
The study format includes the following major elements:
- Executive summary
- Definitions
- Milestones in the development of MEMS
- Current and potential MEMS applications
- MEMS applications and end users with the greatest commercial potential through 2014
- Global MEMS market trends, 2008 to 2014
- Factors that will influence the long-term development of MEMS
- MEMS market shares and industry structure.
METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
Projecting the market for emerging technologies such as many MEMS applications, whose commercial potential has not yet been proven, is a challenging task. This report uses a multiphase approach to identify the MEMS applications with the greatest commercial potential and quantify the market for these applications, as described below.
In the first phase of the analysis, we identified a “long list” of potential MEMS applications (including applications that are still under development) and mapped them against potential end-user industries, such as information technology/ electronics, biotechnology, and healthcare.
In the second phase, we eliminated those MEMS applications that appear to have little likelihood of making it into commercial production in the next 5 years, through a literature review and statements by industry sources. The result of phase two was a “short list” of applications and end-user industries with the greatest near to mid-term commercial potential.
The third phase focused on quantifying the potential broader market for each short-listed MEMS application and identifying the main prerequisites for commercial success. Various methodologies and data sources were used to develop the projections, including trend line projections, input-output analysis, and estimates of future demand from industry sources.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
Andrew McWilliams, the author of this report, is a partner in the Boston-based international technology and marketing consulting firm, 43rd Parallel, LLC. He is also the author of numerous other BCC Research studies, including the previous edition of this report as well as a number of other MEMS-related studies such as IAS027A Microsensors: MEMS, Biosensors and Nanosensors; BIO039B Biosensors and Bioelectronics; HLC038C Patient Monitoring; HLC016C Microelectronic Medical Implants: Products, Technologies, and Opportunities; SAS011B Global Mobile Positioning Markets: Commercial, Military, Homeland Defense; SMC036C Microfluidics Technologies; IFT057A Emerging RF Technologies; and IFT049A Digital Image Sensing, Storage, and Transfer.
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DISCLAIMER
The information developed in this report is intended to be as reliable as possible at the time of publication and of a professional nature. This information does not constitute managerial, legal, or accounting advice; nor should it serve as a corporate policy guide, laboratory manual, or an endorsement of any product, as much of the information is speculative in nature. The author assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that might result from reliance on the reported information or its use.
Report Code: SMC051C, Published: January 2010, Analyst: Andrew McWilliams
