REPORT SCOPE
INTRODUCTION
Conventional wisdom suggests that the world is on the verge of a water crisis that will make enemies of friendly nations and leave millions dead from thirst and starvation. The historic record confirms that those who foresee such a crisis are not entirely wrong. Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of communities founded in proximity to naturally occurring water supplies simply vanished when those resources disappeared. What those who foresee a coming water crisis often overlook is that lost cities are far more the exception than the rule. At some point in its history, every one of the world’s great cities faced a clear and present danger from inadequate water supplies and sanitation. But each survived by integrating water and wastewater treatment (WWT) technologies into the fabric of their infrastructure. The technical solutions for providing water in dry spells and assuring drinking waters remain uncontaminated from sewage have changed over the millennia, but surprisingly less so than most realize, with their core components consisting of only 15 basic WWT “products.” In this study, we forecast the demand for those 15 products in their 40 most robust national markets through 2016, when they will be worth more than $93 billion.
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
In this study, BCC Research examines and provides a 2011 through 2016 forecast for 15 products essential for constructing, maintaining, and operating WWT systems in the 40 top global markets.
REASONS FOR DOING THIS STUDY
In recent years, there has been increasing fear that water shortages will create mass dislocations, and perhaps ignite global conflict. While those fears have merit, they also overlook an essential historic fact. All of the problems associated with a lack of clean water or adequate sanitation are amenable to known — and in most cases fairly inexpensive — solutions. Viewed in this more pragmatic light, what many foresee as a crisis is an enormous opportunity, and one that the WWT industry is amply prepared to address.
Historically, the WWT business has relied on three profit centers: constructing new plants, upgrading existing facilities, and supplying chemicals consumed on both the water delivery and wastewater treatment sides of the business. In this study, BCC Research identifies the products that constitute the core of the WWT business and the geographic markets that offer the most robust business opportunities.
SCOPE OF REPORT
This study focuses on 15 WWT products and 40 robust national markets for those products, which will be worth more than $93 billion by 2016.
Products: The 15 products divide themselves into four self-explanatory product groups:
The process equipmentproduct group comprises:
- Primary treatment equipment
- Secondary treatment equipment
- Tertiary treatment equipment
- Advanced treatment equipment.
The delivery equipmentproduct group comprises:
- Pipes and fittings
- Pumps
- Valves and controls.
The instrumentationproduct groupcomprises monitoring devices that have been optimized for use with:
- Anaerobic digestion systems
- Activated sludge systems
- Nutrient removal systems
- Sedimentation systems.
And, the WWT chemicalsproduct group comprises:
- Activated carbon
- Aluminum sulfate
- Calcium hydroxide
- Specialty chemicals.
The WWT industry obviously uses a far broader catalog than the 15 products listed above. A pumping station, for example, requires a structure to house the pump and concrete for the pad that supports the structure and electrical connections. The focus of this work is exclusively on products; it excludes design, engineering, and construction services not directly related to product installation. This study excludes those items along with plumbing fixtures, point-of-use appliances, and locally provided consumables, such as fuels, chlorine, and other disinfectants and fluoridation supplies.
National Markets: With two exceptions, the national markets correspond to sovereign countries. The exceptions are Hong Kong, a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Taiwan, an island off the coast of mainland China whose inhabitants recognize their own sovereignty but which the PRC claims as its territory. This study refers to those nonsovereign national markets as Chin - Hong Kong and China - Taiwan.
The 40 national markets examined in this study are:
- Argentina
- Mexico
- Australia
- Netherlands
- Austria
- Nigeria
- Belgium
- Norway
- Brazil
- Pakistan
- Canada
- Philippines
- China - Hong Kong
- Poland
- China - Mainland
- Russia
- China - Taiwan
- Saudi Arabia
- Colombia
- South Africa
- Egypt
- South Korea
- France
- Spain
- Germany
- Sweden
- Greece
- Switzerland
- India
- Thailand
- Indonesia
- Turkey
- Iran
- Ukraine
- Italy
- United Kingdom
- Japan
- United States
- Malaysia
- Venezuela
METHODOLOGY
Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this study.
The 15 products examined in this study were selected because they are common to WWT treatment systems. These products were also the focus of BCC Research’s most recent examination of this topic, Growing Markets for Water and Wastewater Technologies (ENV008A), published in June 2007. While some are unique to water distribution and others to the treatment of sanitary waste, most have applications in both types of plants.
Selecting the national markets to include in this study proved a more complex task. It was, of course, essential to include the most populous countries, but size alone was not the sole criterion. Five of the countries — Australia, China - Mainland, Egypt, India, and Mexico — were covered in ENV008A. The remaining countries were selected on the basis of the following 50 factors that drive the demand for WWT products.
METHODOLOGY (Continued)
The 50 parameters used to evaluate countries for inclusion in this study were:
- Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) generated by the food industry
- BOD generated by the chemical industry
- BOD generated by the clay and glass industry
- BOD generated by the metal industry
- BOD generated by the paper and pulp industry
- BOD generated by the textile industry
- BOD generated by the wood industry
- BOD generated by the other industries
- Desalinization
- Electricity production
- Employment in agriculture
- Employment in industry
- Employment in services
- Freshwater withdrawals for agriculture
- Freshwater withdrawals for domestic purposes
- Freshwater withdrawals for industry
- Household final consumption expenditures
- National GINI ranking (a measure of wealth concentration)
- Number of rural homes with an improved water source
- Number of rural homes with improved sanitation facilities
- Number of urban homes with an improved water source
- Number of urban homes with improved sanitation facilities
- Past purchases of activated carbon
- Past purchases of activated sludge instrumentation
- Past purchases of advanced treatment equipment
- Past purchases of aluminum sulfate
- Past purchases of anaerobic digestion instrumentation
- Past purchases of calcium hydroxide
- Past purchases of nutrient removal instrumentation
- Past purchases of pipes and fittings
- Past purchases of primary treatment equipment
- Past purchases of pumps
- Past purchases of secondary treatment equipment
- Past purchases of sedimentation instrumentation
- Past purchases of specialty chemicals
- Past purchases of tertiary treatment equipment
- Past purchases of valves and controls
- Per capital gross domestic produce (ppp method values)
- Population - age distribution
- Population - birth rates
- Population - children under age 5 receiving diarrhea treatment
- Population - death rates
- Population - density
- Population - geographic distribution
- Population - urbanization trends
- Renewable internal ground water resources
- Renewable internal surface water resources
- Transboundary ground water flow
- Transboundary surface water flow
- Water reuse.
Forecasting methodology: To forecast the future demand for the 15 key WWT products, past purchasing patterns were first projected forward based on earlier compound annual growth rates (CAGRs). The resulting values were then adjusted to reflect circumstances within the product-producing industry but more often to account for external conditions that altered the purchasing capabilities or environmental priorities within the national market where the products are purchased. The factors examined were:
- Announced industrial retrenchment and expansion goals
- Announced national water and sanitation goals
- Impact of national economic stimulus programs
- Impact of REACH, the European Union’s new toxic substances rules
- Impact of sovereign debt crisis on investment funds
- Impact of tightening mortgage requirements limiting housing starts
- National internal financing capabilities
- National standing in credit markets
- Population growth
- Prices
- Rural-to-urban population shifts.
ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT
This study contains 11 chapters and 250 tables, plus a glossary and appendix.
- Chapter One: Introduction
- Chapter Two: Summary
- Chapter Three: Overview
- Chapter Four: Water Resources
- Chapter Five: Water Quality
- Chapter Six: WWT Process Equipment
- Chapter Seven: WWT Delivery Equipment
- Chapter Eight: WWT Instrumentation
- Chapter Nine: WWT Chemicals
- Chapter Ten: Trends in the 500 Most Recent WWT-Related Patents
- Chapter Eleven: National Markets for WWT Technology
- Glossary
- Appendix: The Water and Wastewater Treatment Community.
Chapter Eleven is the longest of this study. It is divided into 40 sections, one for each of the 40 national markets listed above. Each section begins with a brief description of the country’s geography, climate, and economy followed by five or six tables describing the structure of the country’s water resources and how water is used. A 2011 to 2016 forecast is presented for all 15 products in each national market in the form of an easy-to-read table. A Glossary that slightly expands on the one contained in BCC Research’s earlier WWT market study, ENV008A, rounds out this report.
INTENDED AUDIENCE
This study will be of interest to those who require a greater deal of operational-level detail about the business opportunities in the water and wastewater industry than is contained in global forecasts. In addition to providing useful information for senior executives within industries that manufacture WWT products, it will also improve the understanding of the “business side” of the WWT enterprise for officers in regulatory agencies and industry trade associations, international investors, attorneys, and other professional stakeholders.
INFORMATION SOURCES
BCC surveyed several hundred organizations to obtain data for this study. Included were major manufacturers of equipment and related products. Data were compiled from current financial and trade organizations as well as from government sources. Data pertaining to household water use and sanitary facilities were extracted from statistical information compiled by the UNICEF’s international household survey initiative, the World Health Organization World Health Survey and the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Agency for International Development, United National Environment Program, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, and the U.S. State Department.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
James Wilson is a noted technology analyst and author of more than 300 articles and several books dealing with the environment, science, medicine, technology, and business. His previous BCC studies include reports on remote sensing, medical device coatings, medical sensors, mobile telematics, robotics, and intelligent wireless microsystems. A former editor of the Princeton Business Journal and a senior science and technology editor for Hearst Magazines, he is a past member of the National Association of Science Writers and the American Medical Writers Association. He has served on the adjunct faculty of Temple University and on the staffs of Drexel University and the Academy of Natural Sciences. At the Academy, Wilson was involved in organizing three national water conferences; served on the organizing committee of the National Water Alliance; authored and co-authored several studies on metals and nutrients in the aquatic environment; and wrote Ground Water: A Non-Technical Guide, ANSP Press (ISBN: 9780910006064), the first popular book dealing with ground water resources.
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DISCLAIMER
The information developed in this report is intended to be as reliable as possible at the time of publication and of a professional nature. This information does not constitute managerial, legal, or accounting advice nor should it serve as a corporate policy guide, laboratory manual, or an endorsement of any product, as much of the information is speculative in nature. The author assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that might result from reliance on the reported information or from its use.
