Global Markets and Technologies for Photovoltaic Systems
Global revenues from solar cells and modules totaled nearly $38.7 billion in 2011 and should decline to $28.6 billion in 2012. Total revenues are expected to reach $78.1 billion in 2017 after increasing at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3%.
The scope of this study encompasses the major PV technologies: monocrystalline silicon, multicrystalline silicon, thin films (e.g., amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, copper indium diselenide), compound semiconductor materials (e.g., gallium arsenide) and emerging approaches such as nanostructured films, dye- sensitized solar cells and organic technologies. BCC Research analyzes each technology, examines its current and potential efficiency, assesses the current market status of each, examines its future market impact and presents shipments of PV cells and their values for 2011, 2012 and 2017.
Various technical issues are discussed and a thorough economic analysis of each technology and its impact on future growth is presented. We also look at polysilicon, building integrated photovoltaic markets (BIPV) and concentrated photovoltaics (CPV) at a higher level with the goal of helping readers understand their relationship to the PV market.
In this report, we analyze the PV industry on a global basis, including manufacturing capacity and consumption by various regional markets. We examine government funding and support, industry involvement, standards, the environmental impact of solar energy and the impact of incentives to use PV. We also discuss the potential for applications—both grid-connected and standalone. Projections of cell and module shipments by major applications are also presented for the five years covered in our study.
Thomas Fuller has been a market research analyst for 16 years and has published numerous reports on technology products and market issues, including several recent reports for BCC Research. Fuller has broad experience in covering regulatory and consumer issues. He is the author of a book on climate change, and his work on bibliometrics is frequently cited in books and magazines.
Global shipments of photovoltaic cells/modules reached 11,102 megawatts in 2010, and are expected to reach 55,621 megawatts by 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38%.
The global market for photovoltaics (PV) will increase from $12.9 billion in 2007 to an estimated $16.1 billion by the end of 2008. It should reach nearly $32.3 billion by 2013 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.9%.
The rapid growth of PV will be driven by the global demand for energy of all kinds, the potential problems of climate change, the renewable features of solar energy and improvements in PV technology and materials.
Silicon technology, which accounted for about 89% of the market in 2007, will continue to dominate through the end of our forecast period, but will represent only 79% of the market by 2013.
Total shipments of photovoltaic (PV) modules were estimated at 973.1 megawatts in 2004 and are expected to rise at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 23.8% to reach 2,783.1 megawatts by 2009.
Silicon technology accounted for approximately 90% of the PV market in 2004 and will continue to dominate through the end of the forecast period. Multicrystalline silicon represents the highest volume.
Recent improvements in their efficiency and the advent of flexible substrates, will provide thin film technology with continued growth.
New technologies, such as dye-sensitized solar cells and modules made by nanotechnology processes, are projected to account for 19.7 megawatts by 2009.
Total worldwide shipments of photovoltaic (PV) modules reached 393.8 megawatts (MW) in 2001 and are projected to grow at an average annual rate (AAGR) of 21% to 1,021.5 MW by 2006.
Their value was estimated at $2,067.5 million in 2001. That amount is expected to increase at a lower AAGR of 12.5% to $3,728.5 million by 2006, as costs are expected to decrease.
Polycrystalline silicon is the highest volume PV technology, and shipments are projected to grow at a 20.6% AAGR to reach 450.8 MW by 2006.
Single crystal silicon shipments were 161.5 MW in 2001 and are projected to rise at an AAGR of 19.8% to 398.4 MW by 2006.
The smaller market for silicon film deposited on more flexible substrates is expected to grow at an AAGR of 21.2% to 19.5 MW by 2006.
Thin films will finally exhibit significant growth during the period, rising at an AAGR of 26.3% to 152.8 MW by 2006.
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