2011 Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Progress Review
- Statistics may vary by different sources but cars produced worldwide in 2010 (latest data available) number about 51 million. To this add the millions of vehicles already on the roads. Back in 2007, the SUV lead with 43% of a three segment market. Hybrids have remained more or less constant since 2008 with 24 to 29% of the market. According to HighBeam Research, through 2011 the EV had 61% of its market sector.
- Despite relatively modest sales projections for EVs for the next 15 years, automotive executives believe that some 83% of automakers will increase investment in electric motor production. Over 81% of the automakers believe investment in battery technology will rise. Approximately 65% of the automakers predict increased investment in fuel cell technology for automobiles.
- Hybrid car statistics show that over 200,000 hybrid cars have been sold in the U.S in 2010. Nearly every production hybrid on the road today uses a power train combination that consists of a gasoline engine (ICE) and an electric motor, which is connected to a nickel-metal hydride battery. This may make all hybrids seem similar, but each of them takes a different approach with their hybrid technology.
There were some significant trends in 2011 for the electric vehicle and hybrid vehicle market. These included everything from marketing strategies to component redesigns and improvements. One trend is the widening and diverse number of EV component makers and the other is accelerating deployment of EV charging options. Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Progress covers technical developments in electric, hybrid and fuel cell vehicles as well as industry and financial news related to the development of this market sector. No hybrid vehicle (HV), no hybrid plug-in electric hybrid (PHEV), no fuel cell (FC) vehicle, or the so-called pure electric vehicle (EV) and no traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle is going to operate without a battery of some type. A place to start to look at the developments in a practically zero emissions vehicle is to look at the battery improvements and chemistries, especially in the secondary type batteries often called rechargeable batteries.
How much and how soon and at what price still remain issues for electric vehicles. In a late Dec. 2011 issue of USA TODAY, an article ran with the headline, “Are electric cars losing their spark?” It seems that there is evidence that the drive to get plug-ins in front of buyers has hit some bumps. Rather than exciting the auto-buyers, the plug-in seems to be fizzling. Analysts would ask why? Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Progress has been tracking this story from buyers not liking the high sticker prices, the government subsidies that don’t seem to help that much, and for the moment lower and more-stable gasoline prices.
First advertised as “all electric,” the Volt turns out to be mostly a soft hybrid or what is known as a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that runs about 35 miles on its battery and then the internal combustion engine has other issues. Nissan’s Leaf also has issues because the infrastructure to plug-in just isn’t there. Think City car and the Aptera have gone bust. Fisker wants $102,000 for its nice looking Karma. As one shopper snipped, “Why would I want to dumb-down my Prius to have an extension cord?” PHEVs are similar to the charge-sustaining hybrids except that they have a higher capacity energy storage system with a power electronic interface for connection to the grid(s).
Then there is the flip side of the car market as the media say all should be green or at least according to some analysts. According to High Beam Research, the media attention of EVs, hybrids and SUVs (sports utility vehicles) has been monitored by them for five years. Back in 2007, the SUV had the lead with 43% of that three market segment. Hybrids have remained more or less constant since 2008 with 24 to 29% of that segment. According to HighBeam, through 2011 the EV had 61% of that three market sector. Then again, there is the question as to what is a hybrid and what is an electric vehicle. Golf carts and forklifts certainly lead the electric small “wheeled moving devices” category.
There is also the opinion of the automobile company executives who direct the funding of money into electric technologies. The majority of these executives don’t see an electric propulsion winner driven by consumer demand before 2025. No matter the timeline of decades of development, EVs are still in their infancy. However, the OEMs are starting to intensify investment and acknowledge that this is a competitive industry. Despite relatively modest sales projections for EVs for the next 15 years, automotive executives believe that some 83% of automakers will increase investment in electric motor production. Over 81% of the automakers believe investment in battery technology will rise. Approximately 65% of the automakers predict increased investment in fuel cell technology for automobiles. There is no clear electrified propulsion system just yet but the fully integrated hybrid seems to be the “electric vehicle” of choice at the present time.
The worldwide pool of vehicles new and old is huge. Statistics may vary by different sources but cars produced worldwide in 2010 (latest data available) number about 51 million. To this add the millions of vehicles already on the roads. For a breakdown of production of vehicles by country worldwide, see http://www.worldometers.info/cars/. Hybrid car statistics show that over 200,000 hybrid cars have been sold in the U.S. Nearly every production hybrid on the road today uses a power train combination that consists of a gasoline engine (ICE) and an electric motor, which is connected to a nickel-metal hydride battery. This may make all hybrids seem similar, but each of them takes a different approach with their hybrid technology.
The second edition of Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Design Fundamentals by Iqbal Husain in Akron, Ohio, and published by the CRC Press, is intended as an undergraduate senior level or first year graduate school textbook. Technical details, mathematical relationships and design guidelines are emphasized in detail along with the modeling of energy storage components. If one wants a more technical explanation of why certain components are used, this is a book to start with. Materials for Proton Exchange Membranes (PEM) and Membrane Electrode Assemblies for PEM Fuel Cells authored by Donald Saxman and published by BCC Research as Report FCBO35C highlights the market value of components for PEM fuel cell membrane electrode assemblies. Portable Battery Powered Products: The Global Markets is also authored by Donald Saxman and published by BCC Research.
The global electric vehicle market in 2009 was worth more than $26 billion, including more than $4.6 billion worth of associated power sources. This market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% between 2010 and 2015 under a consensus scenario. This will result in a $78 billion global market in 2015, along with a $7.6 billion power source market.
The hybrid electric vehicles market is worth an estimated $19.3 billion in 2010 and is expected to reach $46.2 billion in 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% under a consensus scenario.
The HEV and PHEV battery market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% over the next 5 years, from $1.3 billion in 2009 to reach more than $2.6 billion in 2014.
- Provides a comprehensive review of all major news and other events that affect the global market for products, systems and services used in the global market for hybrid and electric vehicles in 2009
- Covers technological advances in hybrid and electric vehicles and battery technology
- Highlights business developments such as significant contracts, mergers, acquisitions, alliances, joint ventures and partnerships
- Looks at efforts by federal, state, and local governments to promote use of hybrid and electric vehicles
- Investigates and reviews major research and development efforts
- Reviews current and pending legislation that may affect industry growth.
- The global market for large and advanced batteries increased from $8.4 billion in 2006 to $8.9 billion in 2007. It should reach $11.4 billion by 2012, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1%.
- The global market for new components used in hybrid electric vehicles was worth $1.6 billion in 2005 and is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 24% through 2010.
- Hybrid car owners are the most loyal buyers, with 47% purchasing another vehicle of the same make. The average consumer loyalty for all vehicle classes is 35%.
The 2007 Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Progress Review provides a comprehensive summary of all major news and other events that affect the global market for electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles in 2007. Included is coverage of:
- Technology advances
- Business developments such as mergers, acquisitions, alliances, joint ventures, and partnerships
- Major initiatives by automakers to promote use of alternative vehicles
- Efforts by federal, state, and local governments to promote use of alternative vehicles
- Research and development
- New alternative vehicles designs
- Battery developments
- Current and pending legislation that may affect industry growth
- Key industry events.
We hope you will find this Review valuable, and we look forward to another year of serving our customers' technology market research needs.
Kevin R. Fitzgerald