Biological, Chemical and Nuclear Terrorism: Potential Diagnostic and Treatment Costs to the U.S.

Published - Mar 2003| Analyst - Mary Anne Crandall| Code - SAS004A
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Report Highlights

  • There are at least 39 terrorist groups with about 250,000 members worldwide.
  • Prior to attack, a vaccine would cost $2.80 per person.
  • After an attack, antibiotic and antiviral treatment could cost $21,386 per person.
  • Mass small pox casualties in the metropolitan New York City region could cost $151 billion in 2007.

INTRODUCTION

Large scale terrorist attacks in the U.S. became a reality in September 2001, bringing with them fear, uncertainty and heightened awareness. Terrorists have used a variety of weapons to inflict harm upon others. Today, however, there is growing concern over the possibility of bioterrorist attacks. Such weapons of mass destruction include biological, chemical and nuclear agents, the impact of which could be staggering. This significantly has altered strategies for treatment that both companies and the government are using to address this issue. BCC's study covers the consequences of a future event, identifying the impact on major metropolitan areas and the costs involved. It demonstrates how the government, academia, pharmaceutical industry participants and the general public are working together in this very important area. It also identifies pharmaceutical products currently available and products in development to counter bioterrorism.

BCC presents a comprehensive look at the markets and strategies for U.S. bioterrorism treatments. These markets are divided into the various types of bioterrorism agents that present a threat to the U.S. and other nations. Deviating from the normal market reports presented by BCC, this report is based largely on what might happen in the event of a widespread bioterrorism attack on the United States in major metropolitan areas. It identifies the areas of bioterrorism treatment that have substantial competitors and products available, and also targets segments of bioterrorism where there are emergent needs. It estimates the potential revenues that could be generated should a bioterrorism attack occur. Each segment is broken down into the cost per treatment and multiplied by the estimated number of victims and the number that would have to be treated in a given geographical area. This formula could be applied to any known population to extrapolate potential revenues in the event of an outbreak.

The report presents insights into areas for current and future development, and is directed to decision-makers, developers and strategists, as well as directors of research in the various biological, chemical and nuclear segments. The report will be especially useful to developing biotech firms that want to enter the area of bioterrorism treatments.

SCOPE OF STUDY

This report provides coverage of:

  • The different areas of bioterrorism and an explanation of each
  • Risk factors and the incidence and mortality
  • R&D in potential treatments in response to biological, chemical and nuclear weapons
  • Current and potential market size and market strategies in the U.S.
  • Forecasts for 2001, 2005 and 2015
  • The industry, its relationship to the healthcare industry, its participants and its future trends.

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

The information and analysis presented in this BCC report are based on extensive first-hand interviews with primary executives, product managers, government experts and participating organization executives. Background information was obtained from various government, , medical journal and trade magazines and interviews with disaster personnel. Key information from published literature was used to conduct interviews with over 50 industry participants to validate and obtain expert opinions on current and future trends. All information gathered was used to extrapolate figures for the 2005 and 2015 markets in the event of a bioterrorism attack on major metropolitan areas. The figures are by no means exact but are derived from analyst calculations based on all information gathered.

All market data pertain to the U.S. market at the manufacturers' level. Data are expressed in current U.S. dollars. The base year was 2001; there was no historical data because prior to 2001, there had been no bioterrorist attack of this magnitude. Forecast data are provided for 2005 and 2015 based on the products in development and the populations affected.

ANALYST CREDENTIALS

Mary Anne Crandall is a Medical Analyst specializing in the pharmaceutical industry for the last 10 years. She has completed several in-depth studies on various medical topics requiring both great medical expertise and excellent knowledge of the industry. Mary Anne Crandall is a Registered Nurse and is currently teaching at a prestigious university.

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