Quantum Warfare Market - A Global and Regional Analysis: Focus on Application, Quantum Computing and Simulation, Quantum Communication, Quantum Component, Quantum PNT, and Region - Analysis and Forecast, 2024-2035

Aug 2023| BIS796A| BIS Research

Report Highlights

Global Quantum Warfare Market to Reach $2,258.6 Million by 2035

Introduction of the Global Quantum Warfare Market

The global quantum warfare market has experienced remarkable growth in recent years due to the increasing advancements in technology and the emergence of new applications in the defense sector. This growth is primarily driven by the government's efforts to advance the defense sector, which has demonstrated its continuous expansion and robust growth. Additionally, the market is driven by the rising adoption of artificial intelligence and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies for defense communication. By leveraging AI in military subsystem testing and deployment, engineers and operators can enhance performance, improve reliability, and optimize operational efficiency. Notable companies include Airbus, Xanadu, Quantinuum, Lockheed Martin Corporation, and Northrup Grumman, among others. These companies heavily invest in research and development to introduce innovative and advanced quantum-based military equipment. The market is expected to witness continued growth as key players and government defense agencies invest in advanced technologies to enhance performance and effectiveness, leading to new opportunities for growth and innovation in the sector.

Market Introduction

The global quantum warfare market is witnessing significant growth and is expected to gain a competitive share in recent years. Quantum warfare has profound consequences for both military and civilian populations. It can break most current forms of encryption used to secure information that is sensitive, such as financial data or classified documents. This could make it more challenging for governments and corporations to protect their data against assaults. It could be used to create more advanced surveillance solutions, raising concerns about security infringement. Quantum communication, on the other hand, could provide more secure routes of communication for military and intelligence agencies.

Furthermore, the growing demand for high-performance computing in the defense sector is supporting the market demand for quantum warfare technologies. Several regional governments are aiming to adopt quantum computing technologies for the development of advanced defense equipment. This technology is expected to help the authorities to create precise and sophisticated targeting systems, further supporting the market expansion during the projected timeline 2024-2035.

Industrial Impact

Increased investment from public and private industry has emerged as a significant driver of growth in the global quantum warfare market. Many countries have established national strategies and initiatives to promote quantum research and development. These programs aim to accelerate advancements in quantum technologies, support quantum education and workforce development, and foster collaborations between academia, industry, and government. Also, major technology companies, such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft and start-ups focused on quantum computing and related technologies have received significant private funding to advance quantum research. Venture capital firms and investors recognize the potential of quantum technologies and are actively supporting start-ups and companies in the quantum ecosystem.

Market Segmentation:

Segmentation 1: by Application

  • Land
  • Naval
  • Airborne
  • Space-Based

Land Segment to Dominate Global Quantum Warfare Market (by Application)

The global quantum warfare market is expected to generate huge revenues from the land application segment. It is expected to generate $85.9 million in 2024 and is projected to reach $986.1 million in 2035 at a CAGR of 24.22% during the forecast period 2024-2035. Land warfare dominates most national defense strategy planning and funding concerns because it promotes the security of urban and rural population regions. Quantum computers can perform calculations that are impossible for classical computers, which could give militaries a significant advantage on the battlefield. It could be used to break current encryption standards, which could have a major impact on military communications. In addition, quantum computers could be used to simulate the effects of different weapons systems on different targets or to simulate the movement of troops and vehicles on a battlefield.

Segmentation 2: by Quantum Computing and Simulations

  • Digital Quantum Computer
  • Analog Quantum Computer
  • Quantum Simulator

Quantum Simulator to be the Leading Segment in the Global Quantum Warfare Market (by Quantum Computing and Simulations)

The global quantum warfare market is expected to be dominated by the quantum simulator in 2024. The market growth is attributed to the growing demand for accurate simulation technologies for defense cryptography and cybersecurity applications. It could help in assessing the security of cryptographic algorithms and protocols against quantum attacks. These computers could potentially break classical encryption methods and provide quantum-safe cryptographic solutions to protect sensitive military communications and data. Moreover, it might be utilized to model complex quantum systems encountered in battlefield environments. This could include simulating the behavior of quantum sensors, quantum communication networks, or quantum computing resources used in strategic decision-making.

Segmentation 3: by Quantum Communication

  • Quantum Network and Communication
  • Post-Quantum Cryptography

Segmentation 4: by Quantum PNT

  • Navigation
  • Positioning
  • Precision Timing
  • Geolocation

Segmentation 5: by Quantum Component

  • Sensor
  • Antenna
  • Radar
  • Clock
  • Magnetometer
  • Others

Segmentation 6: by Region

  • North America - U.S. and Canada
  • Europe - U.K., France, Germany, Russia, and Rest-of-Europe
  • Asia-Pacific - China, India, Japan, and Rest-of-Asia-Pacific
  • Rest-of-the-World - Latin America and Middle East and Africa

North America is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 25.78%. The presence of a larger number of established quantum hardware, software, and service providers is driving the market in the region. The presence of major industry players such as Northrop Grumman, Airbus, Honeywell International, Xanadu, and Raytheon Technologies within the region with growth strategies such as partnerships are paving the way for market opportunities. Additionally, the strategic adoption of quantum communication technology by the U.S. defense authorities is further supporting the market adoption. By leveraging post-quantum cryptography technologies, defense agencies will be able to establish a quantum-secured network infrastructure for future communications.

The U.S. dominates the global quantum warfare market in the region, with various key players dedicated to developing novel quantum sensing technologies that are specifically designed to meet the requirements of defense weapon targeting systems as well as allow the military personnel to procure valuable insights with high accuracy, enhancing infield situational awareness.

Recent Developments in the Global Quantum Warfare Market

  • In July 2023, BTQ, a quantum technology company, entered a strategic research partnership with South Korea’s IRCS to develop post-quantum cryptography solutions. Under this partnership, companies would test the application of the Secure algorithm for Long–term Message Authentication and Encryption (SOLMAE), a signature scheme. It is a theory and application of quantum-resistant cryptography that aims to create a new quantum cyber infrastructure for military, aerospace, and other business that would be resistant to attacks from quantum computers in the future.
  • In January 2023, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), along with 14 other warfare centers, signed a memorandum of understanding with Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to establish and explore the potential of quantum computing capabilities for the Department of Defence (DoD). The partnership provides access of IBM’s Quantum Hub (IBM-Q) processor to Navy scientists of AFRL, allowing them to investigate specific challenges. These challenges are concentrated on operations research, quantum simulation, quantum machine learning, and cryptoanalysis.
  • In January 2023, the European Commission selected Airbus and four other companies under the Cold Atom Rubidium Interferometer in Orbit for Quantum Accelerometery – Pathfinder Mission Preparation (CARIOQA-PMP) project. This is to support the development of a quantum sensor for space-based defense applications. Airbus would supply the resources for the design, construction, and initial operation of the sensor. The company would also deliver the atomic reservoir, ultrahigh vacuum chamber, the magnetic shield, and surrounding optics.
  • In August 2022, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) chose Regitti to provide standards for quantum application performance on large-scale quantum computers. The ability to forecast the performance of fault-tolerant quantum computers on target applications is a significant difficulty in Regitti’s design. This program intends to provide a complete understanding of how mistakes occur at the qubit level, how those errors affect performance on target applications, and an accurate estimate of how quantum hardware and software must advance to meet important performance thresholds.

Report Synopsis

Report Metrics Details
Base year considered 2024
Forecast period considered 2024-2035
Base year market size $184.6 Million in 2024
Market size forecast $2,258.6 Million by 2035
Growth rate 25.57%
Units considered $ Million
Segments covered By Application, By Quantum Computing and Simulations, By Quantum Communication, By Quantum PNT, By Quantum Component, By Region
Industry covered Defense & Security
Regions covered North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, Latin America
Countries covered U.S., Canada, Germany, France, Russia, U.K., Rest-of-Europe, China, India, Japan, Rest-of-Asia-Pacific, Rest-of-the-World
Companies studied
  • Xanadu
  • Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi)
  • Airbus
  • D-Wave Quantum Inc.
  • Quantinuum Ltd.
  • Infleqtion
  • IonQ, Inc.
  • Rigetti & Co, LLC.
  • Zapata Computing
  • IBM

Demand – Drivers, Challenges, and Opportunities

Market Drivers: Growing Significance of Situational Awareness in Military Operations

The quantum warfare market is expected to gain traction across the globe due to the growing significance of providing infield situational awareness to defense troops on a mission. This involves being aware of relevant factors such as events, environments, objects, people, and their interactions, as well as assessing their potential impact on future circumstances. Situational awareness plays a vital role in military operations as it directly affects mission success, operational effectiveness, and the safety of the personnel. Also, it involves understanding the operations environment, assessing enemy forces and comprehending the implications of multiple factors on the mission.

Market Challenges: Lack of Skilled Workforce

Problems associated with the availability of the right skilled employees to operate on quantum technologies are one of the restraining factors for the quantum warfare market. Quantum technology is a highly specialized field that requires a deep understanding of quantum mechanics, algorithms, and hardware. The number of professionals with such expertise is relatively small, resulting in a scarcity of skilled quantum researchers, engineers, and scientists. Several individuals across the world, both students and professionals, are looking for additional resources to assist them in progressing their careers in the field of quantum technology. Also, new companies specializing in quantum careers serve persons seeking work in quantum technologies by giving professional guidance and putting them as excellent prospects in quantum companies.

Market Opportunities: Integration of AI/ML in Quantum Computing Technologies

The growing penetration of AI and ML technologies in the military and defense sector is expected to create growth opportunities for quantum technologies in the coming years. AI-based technologies, such as decision support systems, assist military personnel in making critical decisions by providing recommendations and predictive analysis. These systems, incorporated with quantum technologies, can analyze historical data, assess multiple scenarios, and evaluate the potential outcomes of different actions.

How can this report add value to an organization?

Product/Innovation Strategy: The product segment helps the reader understand the potential of different types of quantum technologies available for deployment globally. Moreover, the study provides the reader with a detailed understanding of the global quantum warfare market.

Growth/Marketing Strategy: The global quantum warfare market has seen major development by key players operating in the market, such as contracts, collaborations, and joint ventures. The favored strategy for the companies has been contracted to strengthen their position in the global quantum warfare market. For instance, in September 2022, the European Space Agency (ESA) announced the selection of SES S.A. and a consortium of 20 companies for the development of the quantum key distribution (QKD) satellite. According to the agency, this satellite will be launched into space in 2024 for European secure communications. In addition, this consortium will develop QKD payload, scalable quantum operational networks, terrestrial optical stations, and key management systems to interact with quantum communication infrastructures (QCIs). This project would allow European defense and governmental agencies to transmit critical data through quantum secure communications networks.

Competitive Strategy: Key players in the global quantum warfare market analyzed and profiled in the study involve major global companies providing quantum hardware, software, and services, respectively. Moreover, a detailed market share analysis of the players operating in the global quantum warfare market has been done to help the reader understand how players stack against each other, presenting a clear market landscape. Additionally, comprehensive competitive strategies such as partnerships, agreements, and collaborations will aid the reader in understanding the untapped revenue pockets in the market.

Methodology: The research methodology design adopted for this specific study includes a mix of data collected from primary and secondary data sources. Both primary resources (key players, market leaders, and in-house experts) and secondary research (a host of paid and unpaid databases), along with analytical tools, are employed to build the predictive and forecast models.

Data and validation have been taken into consideration from both primary sources as well as secondary sources.

Key Market Players and Competition Synopsis

The companies that are profiled have been selected based on thorough secondary research that includes analyzing company coverage, product portfolio, market penetration, and insights, which are gathered from primary experts.

The top established quantum technology providers hold around 68% of the presence in the market. The start-ups in the market hold around 32% of the global quantum warfare market.

Key Companies Profiled:

  • Xanadu
  • Airbus
  • D-Wave Quantum Inc.
  • Quantinuum Ltd.
  • Infleqtion
  • IonQ, Inc.
  • Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi)
  • Rigetti & Co, LLC.
  • Zapata Computing
  • IBM

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