FLAME 2020
Therapeutic Drugs for Central Nervous System (CNS) Disorders: Technologies and Global Markets
Report Highlights
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The overall central nervous system therapeutic drug market is valued at an estimated $78 billion in 2010. This market will experience a nominal reduction in the early portion of the forecast period, and then slowly rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.7% to reach nearly $81.8 billion by 2015.
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By a narrow margin, psychiatry is the largest segment within the central nervous system market, driven by a number of billion–dollar–plus therapies. The market is worth an estimated $20.5 billion in 2010 and will experience a –12.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2015, to a level of $10.8 billion.
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Treatment for depression recorded sales of nearly $16 billion in 2010. Large therapeutic drugs, including Lexapro and Cymbalta, comprise a high concentration of this segment. Driven by patent expiration for Lexapro and other drugs, this segment will shrink to $9.7 billion by 2015, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of –9.4%.
INTRODUCTION
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of central nervous system therapies on a global basis. Its aim is to provide a range of information, from detailed product analyses within disease sub–segments to overall industry trends, in order to quantify and qualify the market for therapeutic drug products in the central nervous system sector. Individual products are forecast on a global basis, as are overall segments. Forecasts and trends are developed from a cross reference of data points, gleaned from proprietary industry sources, company publications, industry benchmarking, and other divergent data sources to arrive at a cogent and coordinated forecast.
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
For companies with an effective strategy, market opportunity awaits. Importantly, the ability to develop an effective strategy begins with opportunity and ends with effective execution in order to capture profit.
The central nervous system therapeutic market is perhaps the most important of any drug sector. Market growth has been spurred by the introduction of differentiated therapies due to novel mechanism of action, such as serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs). In contrast to technical innovation, patent expiry is producing a headwind that will cause the overall market to remain essentially flat through the forecast period.
This report analyzes emerging markets by disease segment. Continued growth is expected in emerging geographies, driven by the growing middle class in countries such as India, China, Brazil and Russia.
This report seeks to address the critically important topics of analyzing a changing market dynamic, emerging players and technologies, strategies for accessing emerging markets, and specific disease segments and geographies in order to allocate resources and make effective decisions.
SCOPE OF REPORT
Current and projected product forecasts during the period 2010 through 2015 are discussed. As well as, new products approved in 2009 and 2010 by the Federal Drug Administration (FDA), and those products expected to be approved within the forecast period. 2010 is an estimated figure, except where actual results have been reported, due to the release timing of the report. For large markets segments such as Psychiatry, Depression, Alzheimer’s, and others, detailed disease investigation is pursued. For example, the mixing trend of increased use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) as a first line therapy as compared to SNRIs is analyzed. For each core segment within the overall market, leading products are analyzed for their differentiation by mechanism of action.
The report includes analysis of leading and emerging competitors in the current worldwide central nervous system market. Profiles of manufacturers of leading products as well as biotechnology companies with novel products in development are analyzed to define their specific product strategies. This report also assesses companies poised to introduce products during the forecast period and discusses how these introductions will change the face of the competitive environment. The competitive environment is examined with a special focus on how new products and technologies are influencing the current standard of care. Detailed profiles of current market leaders are discussed, as well as companies with innovative products poised to advance within the forecast period.
Market figures are based on revenues at the manufacturers’ level and are projected at 2010–dollar value. Inflation is not computed into the projection figures. Trends are assessed based on projected sales for existing products, new product introductions, expanded indications for existing products, and projected changes in the prevalence, diagnosis, and scripting rates for certain diseases.
Included in this report are forecasts by product, product category, and by company from 2009 through 2015. The study is arranged to offer an overview of the central nervous system market accompanied by product, company, geography, and mechanism of action with forecasts broken down and covered by geographic region or country. Virtually the entire globe is covered to include prevalence data, for each disease subsegment.
Excluded from this report are over the counter (OTC) medications, a detailed generics analysis, and other consumables that do not require a physician prescription.
Sales figures are reported in current U.S. dollars and in each case reflect currency fluctuations within the performance of revenue change. Revenue figures do not account for variation in local currencies.
All market share data presented is on a global basis, unless specifically noted.
INTENDED AUDIENCE
This report is an invaluable tool for business planners, acquisition specialists, licensing strategists, product managers, market research analysts, investors, investor consultants and anyone interested in the central nervous system market, its products, its industry participants and its future.
The importance of identifying overall market trends, product opportunities, emerging geographies, merger and acquisition opportunities and insights that provide guidance for sales growth or defensive moves cannot be overstated for a variety of constituents, including:
- Established companies in the industry shall benefit from the contents, including corporate strategy, sales and marketing, business development, and R&D.
- Emerging biotechnology players in the segment must understand specific opportunities for out–licensing, originating from the elements of differentiation of their therapeutic drug as compared to leading, competitive, and emerging therapies. As well, market forecasts can support investment, provided a thorough and detailed substantiation is provided for the market forecast, as is found in this study.
- Investment firms evaluating candidates for venture capital or hedged investments will gain insights as to the opportunity and risks that are being encountered in the industry, in a product and company specific analysis.
- Equity analysts are provided detailed forecasts for the next 5 years, substantiated by quantitative analysis that can support further analysis to product and company forecasts over the short and long term.
METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this report. Detailed interviews were conducted in–person and via telephone with industry participants, equity and industry analysts, leading medical physicians and other experts in the field.
Information to prepare this report was obtained from participating and emerging companies in the central nervous system market including: American Medical Association, The American Parkinson Disease Association, The National Multiple Sclerosis Society, the National Institute of Mental Health, and The American Journal of Psychiatry, Depression and Anxiety, American Parkinson Disease Association, and others; the World Health Organization and other government agencies; literature searches; annual reports; 10Ks, and others. Population estimates are based on those reported by the international database of the U.S. Census Bureau.
Current and historical revenue figures for individual products have been sourced from company disclosures that exist in the public domain or from government sources.
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
Jackson Highsmith is a life sciences research consultant with more than 16 years of research experience. Jackson has been consulting with specialty pharmaceuticals and large pharmaceutical industry players since 2007. Prior to that, he worked at a large research consultancy, where he focused on in-depth research; he also has worked at a large pharmaceutical company in a wide range of medical therapeutics in early- and mid-stage drug development.
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DISCLAIMER
The information developed in this report is intended to be as reliable as possible at the time of publication and of a professional nature. This information does not constitute managerial, legal, or accounting advice; nor should it serve as a corporate policy guide, laboratory manual, or an endorsement of any product, as much of the information is speculative in nature. The author assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that might result from reliance on the reported information or its use.