Generic Drugs: The Global Market

Published - Jul 2009| Analyst - Paul Evers| Code - PHM009E
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Report Highlights

  • The global market for generic drugs was worth $81 billion in 2008, a figure that is expected to reach $84 billion in 2009. In 2014, the market is expected to amount to $168.7 billion, for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in the 5-year period.
  • Sales of U.S. generic drugs currently dominate the market, estimated at $33 billion in 2009 and projected to increase at a CAGR of 10.4% to $54 billion in 2014.
  • Japan’s generic drugs market is expected to have the highest rate of growth among major markets at 12.2%, increasing from $5.4 billion in 2009 to $9.6 billion in 2014.

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of this report is to provide detailed market, technology, and industry analyses to help readers quantify and qualify the market for prescription generic drugs. Important trends are identified and sales forecasts by product categories and major country markets are provided through 2014; these are based on industry sources and considered assessment of the regulatory environment, healthcare policies, demographics, and other factors that directly affect the generic drug market. The wider economic environment is also taken into account.
 
The report examines strategies employed by companies specializing in generics to meet the challenges of this highly competitive market, while also summarizing strategies employed by “originator” companies to forestall generic competition.
 
 
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
 
This is a time of growth and change for the generic pharmaceutical sector. Major aspects which combine to create an opportunity for an up-to date market analysis include the following:
 
  • The demand for generics is increasing steadily because of pressure to control healthcare costs. At the same time fierce price competition in this area has put some companies in difficulties because of slashed profit margins. The main result has been a wave of M&A activity, and the rise of “supergenerics” offering added value as well as low prices. Not all traditional companies are placed to exploit this trend. 
  • A major growth driver for the generics sector is the fact that several blockbuster pharmaceutical brands are coming off-patent and are therefore open to generic competition. But the “originator” companies are deploying formidable strategies to protect their franchise, including marketing their own branded generics. 
  • With first-generation biopharmaceutical products reaching the end of their patent lives, a whole new market field—biogenerics, or biosimilars—is opening up, for those generics companies capable of (or prepared to buy-in) the technological expertise required.
  • The international landscape is changing for generics as for all pharmaceuticals. China, India, Eastern European countries and Brazil are among rising centers of generic activity.     
SCOPE OF REPORT
 
This report discusses the implications of all the above-mentioned trends, in the context of the current size and growth of the generics market, both in global terms and analyzed by the most important national markets. The nature and structure of the generics industry is discussed, with profiles of the leading 10 to 20 generics companies, and an update on M&A activity. Five-year sales forecasts are provided for the national markets and the major therapeutic categories of products involved.
 
MARKET ANALYSES AND FORECASTS
 
Market figures are based on revenues at the manufacturer level and are projected at 2009-dollar value without attempting to predict the effect of inflation/deflation.
 
Therapeutic categories quantified and forecast include antibacterials, antidepressants, anticancer agents, anti-arthritics, cardiovascular drugs (e.g., hypolipidaemics and antihypertensives) and drugs for respiratory conditions including asthma and COPD. 
 
METHODOLOGY
 
Primary research includes interviews with leading individuals in generics companies, industry associations and regulatory bodies. Primary sources of published data include company annual reports, SEC filings, and government and industry publications. Secondary sources consist of literature searches, industry journals and other commercial publications. Data for market estimates and forecasts are pooled from a range of sources, critically assessed by BCC.
 
INTENDED AUDIENCE
 
This report is designed to satisfy the information needs of a wide variety of individuals involved in the generics marketplace, including company senior management executives seeking to base their strategic decisions on the best available information on market forces and trends. However it is also aimed at managers and executives in marketing, research, planning and sales departments who need readable, comprehensive and up-to-date background on the marketplace in which they are operating.
 
INFORMATION SOURCES
 
Sources of information included marketing strategists, industry executives, government agencies and regulatory bodies, and surveys of physicians and pharmacists. Company annual reports and SEC filings, journal articles, and data from healthcare institutions were also mined, as well as publications of relevant trade associations such as the Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA) and the European Generic Medicines Association (EGA). 
 
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
 
Paul Evers has been involved in analyzing pharmaceutical and medical markets for 20 years. He is the author of two previous reports on the generics marketplace as well as analyses of major therapeutic categories and the pharmaceutical regulatory environment.
 
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DISCLAIMER
 
The information developed in this report is intended to be as reliable as possible at the time of publication and of a professional nature. This information does not constitute managerial, legal, or accounting advice; nor should it serve as a corporate policy guide, laboratory manual, or an endorsement of any product, as much of the information is speculative in nature. The author assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that might result from reliance on the reported information or its use.

Table of Contents & Pricing

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Published - Aug-2002| Analyst - Lynn Gray| Code - PHM009D

Report Highlights

  • The U.S. prescription generic drug market is projected to grow from an estimated $11.1 billion in 2001 to more than $19 billion in 2006, representing an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 11.4%.
  • Major growth in the market is projected to derive from the respiratory, central nervous system, gastrointestinal and anticancer therapeutic categories.
  • Cardiovascular drugs alone represent nearly 21% of the generic prescription drug market.
  • Anti-infectives (14.4%) and antiarthritics/analgesics (14.0%) are the next largest generic drug categories.

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